GREAT FALLS – Three years of extreme drought conditions have resulted in lower-than-average mule deer numbers across much of north-central Montana. But in trend area surveys conducted earlier this year, biologists saw good over-winter survival of fawns born in the spring of 2025 and are hopeful that significant rainfall in May and June will translate to better habitat conditions and lead to an increase in mule deer populations across the region in coming years.
“Right now, the country is as lush and green as we have seen in a long time, which is important since the physical condition and health of the doe is the single biggest factor driving fawn production, survival and recruitment into the adult population,” said Cory Loecker, FWP wildlife manager in Great Falls. “So, with the favorable conditions we are enjoying now, we are hopeful that our deer numbers will begin to rebound. But it took several years of poor conditions to get us to this point, so we expect it will take a few consecutive good years to see significant recovery.”
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Wildlife biologists conduct aerial post-season and/or spring mule deer trend area surveys in portions of 18 of the 34 deer hunting districts in Region 4. Although they are not a direct count of all the deer in the district, the trend surveys represent habitat typically found in that area and provide a “snapshot” and good estimate of the deer population, which can be extended to the broader area surrounding the area surveyed.
Hunters should note that in response to low deer numbers they will find extremely limited opportunities to harvest antlerless deer, and very few or no B licenses available across most hunting districts in Region 4.
Great Falls area summary
In the hunting districts around Great Falls, deer numbers have generally been below long-term averages (LTA), especially in the foothill and mountainous areas. In the agricultural areas closer to Great Falls, deer numbers were better and remain fairly strong at or above LTA.
Fairfield area summary
The southern Rocky Mountain Front has experienced severe drought over the past several years, and the poor fawn production seen in recent springs reflects those conditions. A bright spot has been that winter conditions in the area have been mild for several years, so although fawn production has been low, the fawns produced had good survival rates, resulting in populations that have remained low, but stable.
Lewistown area summary
Mule deer numbers in the Judith River and Arrow Creek breaks have been slowly increasing for the past few years but remain well below LTA. Habitat conditions in the Missouri River Breaks have also benefited from two years of more favorable weather, and deer numbers continue to slowly improve, although they are still low.
White Sulphur Springs area summary
Weather and habitat conditions around White Sulphur Springs have been better than much of the region, and higher mule deer numbers reported in harvest data reflect those favorable conditions. Buck harvest has been strong, at nearly a 30-year high in recent years, with more than 50 percent of the bucks with at least 4 points per antler.
Stanford area summary
Judith Basin County has been largely insulated from the drought conditions experienced elsewhere in the region and the state, and coupled with moderate to mild winter weather, have deer numbers above LTA. In addition, high fawn production and recruitment have resulted in growing numbers of yearling and young adult bucks, which is a good sign for the future.
Conrad area summary
The northern Rocky Mountain Front experienced some of the most severe drought conditions found anywhere in the state, resulting in deer numbers well below LTA, although biologists remain hopeful that the heavy precipitation events of late May and June will provide a boost to vegetation and provide better habitat conditions for the upcoming year. Moving eastward into the hunting districts more dominated by agriculture, the deer levels are better and show stable to moderately increasing populations.
